How to trade with Fibonacci

Leonardo Fibonacci was a mathematician born in 1170 AD. From his work, we get the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, and also the well-known Fibonacci golden ratio. The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where the next number is simply the sum of the two preceding numbers. So for example, it would run 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 and so on, with the sequence continuing indefinitely.

It is based on the rate of reproduction of two theoretical rabbits and the subsequent population growth if the following generations continued to reproduce. At first glance, it may seem somewhat confusing to find that there is a connection between a 12th century mathematician, the rate at which rabbits reproduce and predicting the future direction of the financial markets using technical analysis​. So, why is this series of numbers so important for traders?

Fibonacci’s golden ratio example

In financial markets, the Fibonacci golden ratio has the same mathematical base as the natural phenomena mentioned above. When traders use the golden ratio in their technical analysis, the ratio is usually translated into three percentages: 38.2% (often rounded to 38%), 50% and 61.8% (usually rounded to 62%). Having said that, traders can use more multiples when necessary, such as: 23.6%, 161.8%, 423%, 684.4% and so on.

The 38.2% ratio is found by dividing one number in the series by the number two places to the right. For example, 21 divided by 55 equals 0.382. The 23.6% ratio divides one number in the series by the number three places to the right. For example, 8 divided by 34 equals 0.235.

What is the Fibonacci sequence used for?

The Fibonacci sequence and golden ratio appear frequently in nature, biology, architecture and fine art. It is seen in flower petals, tree branches, human DNA and population growth. The golden ratio and other Fibonacci ratios are also often found in the financial markets​, and they form the foundation of the Fibonacci retracement tool.

• Fibonacci retracement lines can be created when you divide the vertical distance between the high and low points by the key Fibonacci ratios. Horizontal lines are drawn on the trading chart​​ at the 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels. Some traders also like to use the 50.0% ratio. This is not really a Fibonacci ratio, but it can be useful. Often a security will retrace by around 50% before continuing its original trend.
• Charting software has simplified the process of drawing Fibonacci lines. Many trading platforms​ enable traders to plot Fibonacci lines. In an upward trend, you can select the Fibonacci line tool, select the low price and drag the cursor up to the high price. The indicator will mark key ratios such as 61.8%, 50.0% and 38.2% on the chart.
• Similarly, in a downward trend, you can select the Fibonacci line tool, choose the high price and drag the cursor down to the low price. The indicator will mark key ratios on the chart. To improve accuracy, traders can also use double tops or double bottoms as the high and low points.

Fibonacci support and resistance

Fibonacci levels are mainly used to identify support and resistance levels. When a security is trending up or down, it usually pulls back slightly before continuing the trend. Often, it will retrace to a key Fibonacci retracement level such as 38.2% or 61.8%. These levels provide signals for traders to enter new positions in the direction of the original trend. In an uptrend, you might go long (buy) on a retracement down to a key support level. In a downtrend, you could look to go short (sell) when a security retraces up to its key resistance level. The tool works best when a security is trending up or down.

Fibonacci trading doesn't just apply to rising markets. If a market has fallen, then Fibonacci fans will apply the retracements to bounce back up. Let’s take an example of a market that has dropped 100 points. If it rallies 38.2%, then those looking at Fibonacci retracements will expect the rally to run out of steam. If that level is broken, then the 50% level is where traders would look for the market to turn back down. And finally, if that one gets broken then a 61.8% retracement of the down move is the next target, with a break here suggesting that the market will go all the way back to where it started the fall.

The next chart shows the drop in GBP/USD. The currency pair​ fell from the 1.5200 area to 1.4100 before stabilising. As the market stabilised, Fibonacci retracements could be applied to this fall. It can be seen that when the market had bounced back by 50%, the recovery ran out of steam and the slide resumed. This is an example of a Fibonacci retracement helping us to figure out when to sell short in a downtrend.

• Combining Fibonacci retracement lines with the MACD indicator​. This strategy looks for a crossing over of the MACD indicator, when a security’s price touches an important Fibonacci level. When this happens, a position can be opened in the direction of the trend.
• combining Fibonacci levels with the stochastic indicator​. This two-line indicator can help identify overbought and oversold levels. The strategy looks for key signals from the stochastic indicator when the price touches an important Fibonacci level. The two signals together indicate an opportunity to open a position.
• Fibonacci retracement levels can be used across multiple timeframes, but are considered to be most accurate across longer timeframes. For example, a 38% retracement on a weekly chart is a more important technical level than a 38% retracement on a five-minute chart. Read more about choosing the right chart timeframes​.

As with all technical analysis tools, Fibonacci retracement levels are most effective when used within a broader strategy. Using a combination of several indicators offers a chance to more accurately identify market trends, increasing the potential for profit. As a general rule, the more confirming factors, the stronger the trade signal.

Open an account to get started with Fibonacci trading.

Not everyone is a fan of the Fibonacci approach to market analysis. Some just see the levels as a self-fulfilling prophecy as so many people are watching them, and not having any particular 'magical' properties. However, even for the sceptic, it can give an extra level of insight to potential market turning points that may not be clear at first glance. You should always consider risk management​​ strategies when using technical indicators in trading.